Nov 9 (PN) Brazil’s oil production is projected to reach a peak of approximately 5 million barrels per day by 2028, driven primarily by the start of operations for new units in the pre-salt region. This forecast is included in the Oil and Natural Gas Production section of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan 2036 (PDE 2036), published by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Office (EPE).
After reaching this peak, production is expected to remain near that maximum level in the following years, standing at 4.9 million barrels per day by 2036. This volume represents an increase of approximately 30% compared to the levels recorded in 2025.
The pre-salt region will remain the country’s primary source of oil, accounting for 73% of national production by the end of the period under review. Meanwhile, deepwater and ultra-deepwater operations will represent 94% of the total by 2036. Onshore production is expected to reach 153,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 3% of the national volume.
As for natural gas, gross production is projected to reach 308 million cubic meters per day (m³/d)—a 72% increase—driven largely by the Santos, Campos, Sergipe-Alagoas, and Parnaíba basins. The pre-salt region is expected to maintain its dominance, accounting for 76% of the country’s total gross production by the end of the study’s horizon.
Net production is expected to reach 135 million m³/d, with the pre-salt region accounting for approximately 55% of that total. Onshore production will also gain prominence, with a projected output of 26 million cubic meters per day (m³/d)—equivalent to 20% of the national supply.
The study also presents sensitivity analyses regarding initiatives that could expand the production and utilization of domestic resources. Among the opportunities identified for natural gas is the implementation of a “Gas Hub” at the Mero field in the Santos Basin. This infrastructure would allow for the processing and distribution of gas from platforms that lack the capacity to separate carbon dioxide (CO₂), with an export potential of 15 million m³/d.
Another possibility highlighted is an increase in the recovery factor of the fields. According to the report, every one-percentage-point improvement in this indicator could add approximately 207 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) to the recoverable volumes in onshore basins, and roughly 2.3 billion boe in offshore areas.
Leave a Reply