(OM) Brazil is expected to contribute around 23% (1.3 MMb/d) of global crude oil and condensate production in 2025 from offshore projects coming onstream between 2021 and 2025, according to GlobalData.
The company’s report, ‘Global Offshore Upstream Development Outlook, 2021–2025’, reveals that 1.16 MMb/d of crude and condensate production in Brazil in 2025 is expected from planned projects with identified development plans, while 169,000 b/d is expected from early-stage announced projects that are undergoing conceptual studies and are expected to get approval for development.
Of the 29 crude oil projects are expected to start operations in Brazil during 2021-2025, Bacalhau, Buzios V (Franco), and Lula Oeste could collectively contribute about 44% of the country’s crude and condensate production in 2025.
Effuah Alleyne, Senior Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, said: “While Saudi Arabia dominates liquids production globally, mostly from already producing projects, Brazil leads crude and condensate production from upcoming/new projects. Brazil’s prolific presalt layer in the Santos basin has produced a strong portfolio of offshore projects operated mainly by Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. [Petrobras], the main national oil company in the country.
“These projects have shown robust economics, such as development breakeven oil prices averaging $40 per barrel and have significantly contributed to South America’s trend of surpassing North America’s offshore production by 2023.”
GlobalData sees the US as the second highest country globally with 655,000 b/d of crude production in 2025 or about 11% of the total global offshore crude and condensate production that year. Norway follows with crude production of 508,000 b/d from planned and announced offshore projects in 2025.
Among the companies, Petrobras, China National Offshore Oil Corp., and Equinor ASA lead globally with the highest offshore crude and condensate production of 768,000 b/d, 371,000 b/d and 331,000 b/d, respectively, in 2025.