Brazil’s oil production is expected to reach 3.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2022, compared to 3.3 million bpd in early 2020, Goldman Sachs analysts projected in a report on Sunday, which already considers effects recent review of the Petrobras project portfolio.
“In general, we are raising our production expectations for the period from August 2020 to December 2021 by 40 thousand bpd versus our previous expectations”, wrote the professionals of the North American investment bank.
“In our forecasts, production should average an average of 3.29 million / 3.40 million bpd in 2021/2022 and reach 3.53 million bpd in December 2022, as platform vessels (FPSOs) continue to enter into operation “, they pointed out.
Petrobras released in mid-September a review of its exploration and production (E&P) portfolio due to the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. The forecast is for investments of 40 billion to 50 billion dollars between 2021 and 2025, compared to 64 billion in the 2020-2024 plan.
Goldman’s figures already take into account this new planning by the state-owned company and the expected delivery of new FPSOs to the company within the expected period.
After the start of operations in July of the FPSO P-70, in the Atapu field in the Santos Basin, Goldman analysts said they expected six more large projects to start producing by the end of 2022.
“For Petrobras, they will involve four FPSOs in the Santos Basin (Sépia, Mero 1, Búzios 5 and the Lula recovery project) and one in the Campos Basin (Marlim 1), in addition to a development operated by Equinor in the field of Peregrino. There are seven additional FPSOs that are expected to be added by 2024 “, they projected.
Although the impacts generated by Covid-19 on operations may delay some FPSOs, Goldman analysts have reduced the time frame they considered necessary for these platform vesselss to go into operation, between 12 and 15 months, from 24 months earlier.
“Most of the improvement comes from the most efficient installation,” they wrote.
The report also pointed out that the coronavirus pandemic had a negative impact on production in Brazil, peaking in May, when around 250,000 barrels a day in production were affected by the deactivation of 62 fields in shallow water, but with later resumption due to demand from China.
“We believe that these closings total only 70,000 barrels per day today, and we assume that 20,000 bpd in production capacity will definitely be lost,” estimated the analysts.
Goldman professionals also pointed out that Petrobras will need to continue investing in new FPSOs to develop areas auctioned off from the transfer of rights, last year.
The state-owned company already has processes underway to hire three new FPSOs that would start operating between 2024 and 2025 in the Búzios field, including a platform vessel that would be one of the largest in the world, they added, pointing out that Petrobras should continue to increase its production from 2023.