Argentina’s YPF could see earnings slide on lower crude prices

(Reuters) – Argentine state-run oil producer YPF could see its core earnings this year slide on lower crude prices, a presentation to investors showed on Friday.

The firm currently estimates its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in 2025 will range between $5.2 billion and $5.5 billion, assuming Brent crude prices at $72.5 a barrel.

However, with crude selling for around $60 a barrel, that would bring projected EBITDA down to $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion, the firm estimated.

Oil prices have faced volatile price swings this week as U.S. tariffs forced traders to reconsider risks to the crude market.

Prices ticked up on Friday, however, with Brent futures settling up 2.26% to $64.76 a barrel after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington could move to halt Iran’s oil exports, stoking concerns over global supply.

Still, YPF’s business operation remains resilient in uncertain times, it said in a presentation to investors in New York.

Earlier this week, CEO Horacio Marin said that Argentina’s sweeping shale formation, Vaca Muerta, could be profitably developed even with lower crude prices.

YPF is divesting from mature oil fields to concentrate its investments in Vaca Muerta, the world’s second-largest unconventional gas reserve and fourth-largest oil reserve.

This year, YPF expects to spend between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, with 66% of the funds going toward shale investments. By 2030, that should come up to $5.4 billion, with 88% of spending on shale.