XP analysts (NASDAQ: XP) reduced the maximum price estimate for the sale of six Petrobras refineries (SA: PETR4) by U$ 5.7 billion, when reviewing their calculations after the Landulpho Alves Refinery (Rlam), was sold for less than market expectations.
In the new calculation, which considers some risks related to fuel prices for future refinery owners, XP estimates that the Rnest, Repar, Refap, Regap, Reman and Lubnor refineries are worth between U$ 3.5 billion and U$ 4.8 billion, compared to a previous forecast of U$ 7.9 billion to U$ 10.5 billion, pointed out a report published on Monday.
These values do not include Rlam, which is considered the main and most valuable asset for sale, in addition to SIX (shale industrialization unit, in Paraná).
The factors that weighed in the review, according to the bank, were the risk of investing in emerging countries, risks related to the freedom to practice fuel prices in the country and the time in operation at Petrobras refineries, five of which were built between 1957 and 1977.
According to XP, investors can attribute a higher risk premium considering that the maintenance of domestic fuel prices in line with international values is a very recent phenomenon in Brazil, started in 2016.
“Our readers will certainly remember that the practice of a price policy aligned with international references of oil and foreign exchange prices did not occur without its mishaps, as observed both in the Truckers’ Strike of May 2018, as in the recent events of February of 2021 that culminated in the replacement of Mr. Roberto Castello Branco as CEO of Petrobras “, said XP.
Based on the new assumptions, XP also estimated values between U$ 1.58 billion and U$ 2.13 billion for Rlam (the oldest Petrobras refinery, opened in 1950) – the final value of the Petrobras sale operation for the Mubadala was U$ 1.65 billion, closer to the bottom of the range.
In the previous forecast, XP saw Rlam’s price ranging between U$ 3.6 and U$ 4.7 billion.
Petrobras has pledged to sell eight of its refineries, which represent half of Brazil’s refining capacity, as part of a plan by the federal government to break the monopoly in the sector. In addition, the company currently seeks to focus its efforts on the pre-salt, giving up assets in other segments.
The oil company’s board approved the sale of Rlam, the first refinery to have a closed deal, on February 8.
The sale value of Rlam is now undergoing an analysis by the Federal Audit Court (TCU), which will decide this week whether there will be a need to suspend the operation, as reported by Minister Walton Alencar Rodrigues during a plenary session on Wednesday of the week last.
The minister pointed out that the state company itself had estimated the value of Rlam at U$ 3.04 billion.