November 25, 2019
Pre-Sal Petróleo SA (PPSA) estimates that the demand for new FPSOs could reach 28 new units to be installed between 2021 and 2030 to develop the reserves contracted under the production sharing model.
There are a total of 17 exploration and production contracts signed between 2013 and this year, when TOR and the 6th round of pre-salt sharing took place.
The investment estimate, updated by PPSA, will be presented at the 2nd Pre-Salt Petroleum Technical Forum, in Rio de Janeiro.
PPSA estimates that the installation of these 28 FPSOs and other necessary investments for exploration and development of the areas will be able to raise R$ 560 billion, of which R$ 196 billion are related to the production units; R$ 196 billion is estimated for drilling 474 wells; and R$ 168 billion for subsea systems.
Despite Petrobras’s majority contracting – this year alone, the company has contracted 90% of Buzios’ , 100% in Atapu’s case and 80% of Aram’s bloc in the 6th round. Investments in share production will be made by several companies. Over last six rounds, contracts were signed with Equinor, ExxonMobil, BP and Shell as operators.
The round of 2013 contracted the Libra block, which led to the demarcation of the Mero field, where Petrobras and its partners produce with an FPSO under test, the Pioneer of Libra (Ocyan / Teekay) and has contracts with two contractors: Modec (FPSO Guanabara) and SBM (FPSO Sepetiba).
Another advanced project is that of Buzios, contracted in November. Petrobras has already installed four own units in the region and has one more (Buzios 5) already contracted with Modec. In all, the field can receive up to ten FPSOs.
Equinor is also advancing with the Carcará project, which began with the exploration of BM-S-8, a concession of the 2nd round of the ANP, and had its extension contracted in the 2nd sharing round (North of Carcará). The company should soon conclude the contracting of the Carcará FEED 1, which will be the largest FPSO in the country, with a capacity to process 220,000 barrels per day of oil and 15 million m³ / day of natural gas and should start operating in July 2024.
The result of these new investments will be an increase in Brazilian oil production and could reach an additional 3.89 million barrels per day of oil buy 2032, only in fields contracted under production sharing. The country currently produces about 3 million barrels. of oil and natural gas per day in total.
In the sharing regime, besides royalties and taxes, the Union is entitled to a portion of the production result (the profit-oil), the sale of this oil under the responsibility of PPSA should correspond to the largest portion of government participation in the contracts.
PPSA estimates that, considering an exchange rate of US $ 4 and the reference price of a barrel of oil at US $ 60, it is possible to raise R$ 1 trillion by 2032, being U$ 424 billion from the sale of oil (42% ), R$ 227 billion in taxes (35%) and R$ 349 billion in royalties (23%). Only the Union’s share in oil should generate revenues of R$ 102 billion by 2031.
For comparison, Brazil’s estimated revenue this year, considering only royalties and special interests, is R$ 24 billion. Calculation made by the ANP considering the production schedule of the companies and the collection of the concession agreements.