Let the newbuilds come. The jackup market is far from oversupplied.
We like to predict the future of the rig market. That involves extrapolating current trends, looking at history, listening to what oil companies and rig owners are saying, and (admittedly) speculating sometimes.
But it doesn’t take a lot of speculating to conclude that the jackup oversupply theme is so 2016.
The offshore rig market has suffered through a four-year depression. And all the while, the new-rigs-will-replace-old-rigs argument has been touted by nearly every rig owner (assuming they have new rigs in their fleet).