Nielmar de Oliveira – Agência Brasil
Faced with expectations of rising fuel demand in the coming years, Brazil could consolidate the position of net exporter of oil and net importer of derivatives, mainly diesel oil and aviation kerosene.
The opinion is made by José Mauro Coelho, Director of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Studies at the Energy Research Company (EPE), and was manifested today during the launch of the 2nd Oil Industry Conjuncture Bulletin prepared by the company, in Rio de Janeiro.
In the evaluation of EPE, linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the exploratory success and high productivity of the pre-salt area can determine production growth in the coming years.
“Effectively, our oil production will increase greatly and is expected to reach 2026 with the extraction of about 4.5 to 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, practically doubling production over a 10 year horizon – which is very significant” , Said Rabbit.
However, the growth in oil production demand should not be accompanied by an increase in the production of refining of derivatives, should the investments fail to materialize.
Numbers of the future
“In this case, demand [for derivatives] will not keep up with supply [of crude oil]. The country will be producing between 4.5 and 5 million barrels for a demand around 3 to 3.5 million liters of derivatives ” he said.
The director of the EPE pointed out that, when analyzing the country’s refining sector, it does not foresee changes [from the point of view of the supply of derivatives] over a 10-year horizon. “We do not see many changes, nothing related to the Comperj (Petrochemical Complex of Rio de Janeiro), other than the entry of the Natural Gas Processing Unit by 2021. And also the possibility of the entrance of the second train of Rnest (Refinery of the Northeast) in 2023, which will add something to the country’s refining capacity. ”
In the chapter dealing with the Brazilian situation, the Petroleum Industry Bulletin highlights that, despite the downturn in the country’s upstream investments (oil production and exploration), Brazil overtook Mexico and Venezuela and is now the largest producer of Latin American oil, with the growing production of the pre-salt and the high productivity of its fields.