Guyana to remain a carbon sink through 2030, even with massive oil projects online

March 23 (oilnow.gy) Guyana will remain a net carbon sink through 2030 even as it expands oil production with multiple offshore projects, according to an environmental impact assessment (EIA) for ExxonMobil’s proposed Longtail development.

The assessment, prepared by ExxonMobil consultant Acorn International, found that cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from existing activities, the Longtail project and associated gas infrastructure would remain well below the country’s forest-driven carbon absorption capacity.

Guyana’s forests, which cover more than 80% of the country’s landmass, remove an estimated 154 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent annually, according to the government’s Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030.

At its peak, total emissions in Guyana—including ExxonMobil’s projects up to Longtail—are projected to reach about 26.4 million tons per year, or roughly 17% of that capacity, according to the EIA. Exxon’s projected peak emissions would account for 6.5 percentage points of the 17% total.

The Longtail project is ExxonMobil’s eighth planned offshore development in Guyana’s prolific Stabroek Block. The company has submitted the EIA to regulators and signaled its intention to file its field development plan in the first quarter as part of the approval process.

Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has opened the assessment to public review, allowing citizens and stakeholders to submit questions or concerns before a decision is made.

While the EIA indicates that Guyana will retain its net carbon sink status, it also notes that total emissions would rise, with cumulative output increasing by about two-thirds compared with 2022 levels.

ExxonMobil and its co-venturers, Hess and CNOOC, have rapidly scaled up production in Guyana since first oil in 2019, with output now exceeding 900,000 barrels per day. 

The government has said it will balance oil development with its climate commitments by leveraging its forests for carbon capture and by expanding low-carbon initiatives under its LCDS.