(Reuters) – Israel’s attack on Iran is unlikely to cause a major disruption to oil supply, analysts at two major banks said, but a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel, Goldman Sachs said.
Oil prices climbed nearly 9% after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, with benchmark Brent crude futures trading near $74.74 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs has incorporated a higher geopolitical risk premium into its adjusted summer 2025 oil price outlook, but “we still assume no disruptions to oil supply in the Middle East,” the bank said in a note Friday.
The bank continues to forecast “that strong supply growth outside U.S. shale will reduce Brent and WTI oil prices to $59/55 in 2025Q4 and $56/52 in 2026.”
Analysts at Citi also said that supply disruptions should be limited, adding that while heightened geopolitical tensions may linger, energy prices are unlikely to stay elevated for a sustained period.
Commerzbank said a further rise in oil prices would depend on supply risks in the event of an escalation, adding that prices are unlikely to fall below $70 for the time being.
Goldman Sachs has incorporated a higher geopolitical risk premium into its adjusted summer 2025 oil price outlook, but “we still assume no disruptions to oil supply in the Middle East,” the bank said in a note Friday.
The bank continues to forecast “that strong supply growth outside U.S. shale will reduce Brent and WTI oil prices to $59/55 in 2025Q4 and $56/52 in 2026.”
Analysts at Citi also said that supply disruptions should be limited, adding that while heightened geopolitical tensions may linger, energy prices are unlikely to stay elevated for a sustained period.
Commerzbank said a further rise in oil prices would depend on supply risks in the event of an escalation, adding that prices are unlikely to fall below $70 for the time being.
Brazil Energy Insight 
Leave a comment