US Stays the Course Toward Offshore Wind Targets

(OE) The events of the last month have shown that, despite some negative factors, the impetus to continue to grow the U.S. offshore wind segment has lost little steam. The foundations are firmly in place to support the deployment of 30 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050.

Two major outer continental shelf (OCS) projects with around 940 megawatts (MW) of capacity have reached final investment decision (FID) and have commenced onshore construction.

The number of projects that are expected to make a final investment decision within the next 18 months has risen to nine amounting to around 9 GW of capacity.

A further nine projects with a capacity of close to 11 GW are expected to make an FID within 18-36 months as well as an additional eight projects for 9 GW in 36-60 months.

Longer term, we have identified 38 projects with a total capacity of 39 GW, which support the installation of a cumulative 62 GW by 2035 and 73 GW by 2040.

Eleven OCS developments with a potential of close to 19 GW are currently undergoing federal permitting review to create the foundation of meeting the 30 GW by 2030 goal. 17.5 GW of project capacity has secured offtake commitments from states, and the process to procure at least 2.6 GW of additional capacity has been initiated in New York and Rhode Island.

Federal authorities have launched the leasing process for over 4.5 GW of floating wind capacity offshore California, further auctions are planned for the South Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, the Central Atlantic, Oregon and the Gulf of Maine before the end of 2024. Close to 7.4 GW capacity in two wind energy areas in the Gulf of Mexico are being moved forward—in Texas and Louisiana. Further, legislation is being debate in the Senate that would reverse the 10-year moratorium on offshore wind development in the South Atlantic from the Carolinas down to Florida.

An unsolicited request has been submitted to develop a 2 GW floating wind farm in Washington State.

Turbine component, foundation and cable factories and Jones Act wind farm vessels are being built in the U.S. and offshore wind port development is accelerating. Incentives to promote further investment in the local supply chain and Jones Act vessels are being rolled out.

Floating wind farm technology demonstration projects are being developed for both Atlantic and Pacific coasts as a precursor to large-scale floating wind farm projects being constructed towards the end of the decade and beyond.

Attractive federal incentives are being put in place to promote the development of renewable hydrogen projects, which are ideal for pairing with offshore wind projects.

Our forecast accounts for projects that will install close to 70 GW of capacity in this and the next decade. The forecast capacity will require capital expenditure amounting to $203 billion to bring onstream, a recurring annual operations and maintenance spend of around $7 billion once delivered, and close to $31 billion of decommissioning expenditure at the end of commercial operations.

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