FEB 12 , 2020
Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, launched the Ten Year Energy Plan (PDE 2029), a document that brings an indication of the prospects for future expansion of the energy sector for the next decade. For the oil and gas sector, in particular, the projections are encouraging. The government estimates that the current FPSO fleet, now with 45 units, will receive 42 more vessels by 2029. In addition, oil production is expected to hit the mark of 5.5 million barrels per day that year, double the value registered in 2018 and 71% higher compared to the volume projected for 2020 (3.2 million barrels per day).
The Plan also indicates that the pre-salt will account for about 77% of the national oil production, with a strong participation in the Santos Basin. The government also assesses that with the forecast of increasing oil production, associated with the marginal increase in refining capacity, Brazil will assume the condition of net oil exporter.
Talking about refining, the Plan considers that the Emission Abatement Unit of the Abreu e Lima Refinery (Rnest) will start operating in 2021, the first train of the plant will have the capacity to process 130 thousand barrels per day ( gain of 30%). The 2nd Rnest train, also with a refining capacity of 130 thousand barrels per day, will start operating in 2024. Thus, Brazil’s total capacity will go from the current 2.3 million barrels per day to around 2.5 million barrels a day in 2029.
The plan also brought some positive estimates for the natural gas market. The consumer market for this fuel should present an average annual growth rate of 1.4% for non-thermoelectric demand between 2019 and 2029. The projected demand for natural gas for power generation will increase by 1.3 million m³ per day, in 2029. This will represent an increase of 6.5% compared to last year. Thus, Brazil should arrive in 2029 with a total consumption of 87.6 million m³ / day of natural gas, an increase of 10 million m³ daily compared to the projected volume for 2019.