2 JAN 2020
Brazil’s oil exports reached a record in December and are expected to continue to grow in the coming months and years, given a significant advance in production in the pre-salt fields, which could place Brazil among the top five global producers.
The country exported 8.72 million tons in December, more than double that registered in November (3.77 million tons) and in the same period of 2018 (4.22 million), according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat. (Secex) published this Thursday.
The previous monthly oil export record was set in July 2018, when the country exported 8.098 million tons.
Last year, Brazil’s oil exports reached 64.6 million tons, compared to 59.2 million tons in 2018, up 9% annually, according to Secex.
Analysts and the government expect foreign sales to continue to grow.
“As the pre-salt production progresses … and as our refining is stable, we tend to grow sequentially now, month after month, setting an export record,” said the oil and gas chief at consultancy INTL FCStone, Thadeu Silva.
According to the expert, the forecast is that there will be additional production of about 200,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) by the middle of the year. For the next few years, Silva said, other major projects are expected to come into operation, including led by foreign companies.
“In the next three years we will get used to seeing oil export records.”
The director general of the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) stressed to Reuters that the increase in production is a result of measures taken to ensure the resumption of the sector.
In recent years, Brazil has carried out several reforms in the oil segment and promoted auctions of new exploration areas, after a previous period without bidding and concentration of exploration in state-owned Petrobras.
In Oddone’s assessment, the resumption will intensify in the coming years, making production continue to increase and the country to become an even more relevant exporter.
“Much of the increase in global oil supply will come from increased Brazilian production. By the end of the decade, Brazil should be one of the top five producers and a major exporter,” said Oddone.
The ANP has not yet published December production data. But in November the volume grew 20.4% compared to the same month of 2018, surpassing the level of 3 million bpd.
Undersecretary of Intelligence and Foreign Trade Statistics, Herlon Brandão, explained that in the first half of last year there was a slow growth in oil exports. But in the second half of the year the scenario has changed making oil a “major product” in foreign sales in recent months.
Previously, Petrobras reported that it had a large volume of platform maintenance shutdowns in the first half of 2019, a behavior that may be repeated in the first six months of this year.
Source: Reuters
Brazil Energy Insight 
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