Bassoe: Demand for deepwater rigs in South America to double by 2021

Petrobras will need more drilling rigs than they need today

Petrobras’ baseline rig requirement to maintain current production is estimated to be around 20 rigs. Today there are 26 rigs on contract, but only around 20 are drilling at one time.

This year, the number of rigs on contract will drop to 14. Petrobras will need to tender for at least four rigs to maintain 20 rigs on contract as not all of 12 rigs coming off contract this year have options. Bidding activity, therefore, will already start picking up this year, and that’s only for baseline demand.

Petrobras’ recent pre-salt Phase 3 plan, reported by Upstream, will now include 12 new FPSOs compared to only six FPSOs in their recent five-year business plan. Assuming that a doubling of the number of FPSOs will lead to a doubling in Petrobras’ offshore drilling requirements related to the pre-salt plays, this development becomes a major data point.

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