Brazil Oil Output To Grow 830,000 bopd By 2021

The IEA believes Brazil will be the second country outside OPEC in terms of the growth of oil production over the next five years. From here until 2021, oil extraction was expected to rise from the current rate of 2.53 million to 3.36 million bopd, growth just under the United States. The estimates set out in a report released yesterday by the IEA regarding medium-term projections for the energy market.

“Despite all the logistical and institutional issues, oil production is on the rise,” said the agency. The report cites the corruption scandal investigated by the federal police’s Lava Jato (Car Wash) Operation, the high debt of Petrobras and delays in delivery of equipment such as drill rigs and platforms as uncertain factors regarding the fulfillment of the predictions.

Still, the IEA is forecasting an additional 830,000 barrels a day in production over the next five-year period, with reinforcements coming especially from the pre-salt layer. This increase should more than offset the decline in mature fields.

The report points to weak economic activity in Brazil as a brake on demand for fossil fuels. In the last six years, the Brazilian demand for gasoline rose at a 6.3% annual pace. Between 2015 and 2021, consumption will rise from 1.0 million to 1.1 million b/d, at 1% per year. In addition, the agency sees a recovery process of ethanol and biodiesel usage growth, whose mix with common diesel will gradually pass from 7% to 10%.