Don’t Hold Your Breath If Betting on a Smooth Brazil Transition

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Investors betting that Brazil’s corruption scandal will hasten President Dilma Rousseff’s downfall and usher in a stronger leader to pull Latin America’s largest economy from recession may want to think again.

Brazil’s stock index rose the most among its global peers in the past week and the real touched an almost three-month high as corruption allegations against Rousseff and her mentor, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, dimmed the prospects of her political survival. The two have repeatedly denied wrongdoing.

Yet the president’s ouster is far from a foregone conclusion given the lack of hard evidence against her. Even if they prove successful, efforts to remove Rousseff from office probably would take months and open up a Pandora’s box of succession possibilities. That wouldn’t create the political stability that investors say is needed for Brazil’s economy to get back on track.

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