Don’t expect the plunge in commodity costs to help the global economic picture any time soon.
Analysts at Natixis, led by Chief Euro-Region Economist Sylvain Broyer, contend that the headwinds stemming from lower crude will only start to outweigh any positives this year.
This analysis adds to an increasing body of commentary that claims “this time is different”: lower oil prices are a drag on the global economy.
“Contrary to 2015, falling oil prices will begin to take a toll on the global economy in 2016 for three key reasons,” the analysts write.
Natixis contends that a slowdown in demand growth from oil-importing nations; belt-tightening in oil-exporting countries that will hit imports in the developed world; and a rise in corporate default rates that tightens financial conditions will combine to make oil prices around $30 per barrel a net negative for global activity.
Brazil Energy Insight 
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