Oct. 8 (Agencia Eixos by Gabriel Chiappini and Gustavo Gaudarde)
The Working Group, announced last week, to discuss the regulation of offshore wind power, by the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), has dashed the hopes of industry representatives that the third Lula administration would hold the first auction for the transfer of land for offshore generation in the country by 2026.
In practice, working groups have been working on the issue since the Jair Bolsonaro administration, even before the former president issued Decree 10.946 in 2022, the first initiative to regulate the transfer of use of marine areas for wind generation.
At that time, government sectors tried to push through a first auction, betting on the wind power in Ceará and the preexisting infrastructure for offshore activities in Rio de Janeiro. Without a law, legal uncertainty prevailed, and the plans were aborted.
Last week’s move was seen by investors—who are still betting on a solution—as yet another postponement, frustrating expectations.
Sources told the Agencia Eixos that there is a perception that Brazil continues to lose opportunities to other countries, especially at a time when investments are fleeing the United States due to the Donald Trump administration’s “anti-wind” policies.
The complaints are directed at the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), but they reflect a perception that the government, as a whole, does not believe in the projects or is not convinced by the sense of urgency advocated by investors.
Offshore wind power is facing criticism both within and outside the government for being more expensive, while there is vast potential onshore. This comes at a time when a crisis with billions of dollars in losses is ravaging the renewable energy sector due to mandatory generation cuts (curtailment)—a battleground in the National Congress, which is accumulating provisional measures for the sector.
A draft decree to regulate offshore generation has already been drafted and discussed with industry executives. The new Working Group will, however, have 270 days to submit guidelines to the CNPE for regulating Law 14.766/2025, which established the legal framework for offshore wind power.
According to Gustavo Ataíde, the MME’s National Secretary of Energy Transition and Planning, who has held the position since June, the proposed decree should only be presented in the first half of 2026, after further rounds.
In other words, the text should only begin internal government processing during an election year.
Before the creation of the Working Group, the MME had opened a public consultation in July to improve the methodology for selecting areas for offshore wind generation, including technical, environmental, economic, and social criteria.
The expectation was that the material would inform the drafting of the decree. However, according to some companies that participated in the process, the contributions have not even been analyzed yet.
Among the items to be defined are:
-The prior locational definition of prisms, the “blocks” for offshore energy generation;
-the procedure for interested companies to submit prism proposals at any time;
-The request for a declaration of prior interference (DIP), a pre-viability validation step that compares with other activities, such as fishing, navigation, and oil and gas production;
-Sanctions and penalties applicable in cases of non-compliance with the obligations set forth in the concessions;
-And the mandatory requirements for technical, economic, financial, and legal qualifications, in addition to the promotion of national industry. Government officials (and large companies) want to prevent speculative contracting of these areas.
When contacted, the Ministry of Mines and Energy did not respond to questions regarding the timeline and the risk of the country losing the first offshore auction during Lula’s third term.
Investment flight
“Unfortunately, the schedule doesn’t meet market expectations. We need to hold an auction in the first half of the year, or Brazil could be forgotten as a potential offshore player,” Edisiene Correia, head of New Business at Shizen in Brazil, told Eixos.
“Submitting a report in the first half of the year means postponing the auction by a year and a half,” she estimates.
Shizen has the second most requests for offshore wind farm licensing in Brazil, with 18 GW in six states, behind only to Petrobras, with ten projects totaling 23 GW.
It is one of the few companies that moved forward and filed for a DIP with the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP), which denied the request—without a decree, it is impossible.
It is worth remembering that each project above 1 GW requires, on average, a minimum investment of US$1.5 billion (more than R$8 billion at the current exchange rate).
According to EPE, in a scenario of modest sector expansion, with 4 GW installed by 2035 and 16 GW by 2050, investments could reach approximately US$40 billion (R$214 billion).
“We are without hope. Brazil could be forgotten as a potential player,” a representative of a company with projects also undergoing licensing with Ibama told Eixos.
The frustration is even greater because the decree was expected to be published by COP30, in November 2025, in Belém.
As reported by Exios, GWEC, Abeeólica, and IBP expected the government to use the international event to announce the date of the first auction—which is unlikely to happen.
Other companies may be expected to abandon the Brazilian market, following the example of Denmark’s Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) and Australia’s Corio Generation, which suspended their operations in Brazil, postponing billion-dollar investments due to a lack of clear timelines.
CIP has 7.2 GW under licensing with Ibama (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources), through Bosford Participações, and Corio planned to develop five offshore wind farms in Brazil, totaling up to 6 GW.
TotalEnergies, with another 12.1 GW in orders, has also relocated its team responsible for offshore wind in Brazil to other areas.
Investors are shifting resources to other countries in Latin America, such as Colombia and Chile, and in Asia-Pacific, such as Taiwan.
Election Year and Uncertainty
In 2026, election campaigns begin in August, with the first and second rounds of voting in October.
Although auctions are possible during election periods, there are legal restrictions on advertising and administrative acts that could be interpreted as political favoritism.
In 2022, then-President Jair Bolsonaro also attempted to speed up the first offshore auction by issuing a decree. But the process stalled due to the risk of litigation and the uncertainty surrounding the regulatory model. Now, under Lula III, the impasse appears to be repeating itself.
“The deadline for submitting a regulatory report by the end of the first half of next year could be faster, especially since this Working Group has been working on this issue for a long time,” said another source interviewed by the news agency.
Still, the Working Group’s announcement brought a positive note: according to sources, for the first time, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) presented a timeline, albeit a generic one.
“The expectation is that the Working Group will expedite the regulatory process that the industry has been waiting for so long,” said the same source.
EDF Power Solutions, which has five offshore projects under licensing with Ibama (10.3 GW in three states), adopts a more optimistic tone. “We enthusiastically welcome the creation of the Working Group. This is a significant milestone for the development of the sector in Brazil, especially due to the clear definition of the infra-legal frameworks and established deadlines,” the company said in a statement.
Seven years of debate
In 2018, then-Senator Fernando Collor presented the first text for offshore wind power (Bill 11247/2018).
In 2022, then-President Jair Bolsonaro issued the decree (10.946/2022) on the transfer of land use for offshore electricity generation, defining two procedures: independent transfer (private initiative) and planned transfer (government initiative).
At that time, the Senate pointed to the risk of litigation, which led to the bill, introduced in 2021 and authored by then-Senator Jean Paul Prates, being processed in the National Congress.
After intense discussions in Congress, which included incentives for coal, natural gas, Small Hydroelectric Power Plants (SHPs), biomass plants, and onshore wind power, the law was approved in the Chamber of Deputies in 2023 and by the Senate plenary in December 2024.
The law was signed into law by President Lula in January 2025, with vetoes on incentives unrelated to offshore wind power.
In June 2025, Congress overrode presidential vetoes, extending contracts for Small Hydroelectric Power Plants (SHPs), biomass plants, and onshore wind farms for up to 20 years.
In July 2025, the Ministry of Mines and Energy opened a public consultation to improve the methodology for selecting areas for the activity, including technical, environmental, economic, and social criteria for identifying viable areas.
In October 2025, the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the creation of the Working Group to regulate the legal framework for offshore wind farms.
Brazil Energy Insight 
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