(PN) The Energy Research Company (EPE), chaired by Thiago Prado, recently published new documents that are part of the Ten-Year Energy Plan (PDE 2034), highlighting encouraging forecasts for both the natural gas market and the energy transmission segment (the publications are available on the EPE website). In the specific document for natural gas, EPE predicts that demand for the input for the residential, commercial and industrial segments will increase by 37.5% over the next ten years. In other words, in 2034, demand will be 56 million m³ per day, which would represent an annual growth of 3.2% over the period.
In the downstream segment, demand is expected to increase from 16 million m³ per day in 2024 to 23 million m³ per day by the end of the ten-year period. According to EPE’s projections, thermoelectric demand, currently at 72 million m³ per day, would fall to 65 million m³ per day in 2025, due to the termination of contracts for some thermoelectric plants. There would then be a recovery, reaching a demand of 140 million m³ per day in 2034.
In addition, the publication seeks to present investment estimates for the study horizon, in order to provide relevant information on the evolution of this market. The projected national supply in the integrated network has prospects for growth of almost 100% between 2024 and 2034, while import capacity grows by 20% in the same period.
Another highlight in the report is the increase in investments in the Brazilian natural gas industry, given the entry into operation of assets already presented in other PDEs, although investments are expected over the long term. The projects classified as planned, in the order of R$14 billion, are already close to entering into operation, while the indicatives still require greater definition by interested parties, totaling just over R$140 billion.
GROWTH OF ALMOST 17% IN THE TRANSMISSION NETWORK
In the report that deals with energy transmission, EPE projects that the country will receive investments of R$128.6 billion for the construction of 30,000 km of new transmission lines and 82,000 MVA in new substations by 2034. The report also highlights the need to meet the growing demand of Data Centers. Due to this high demand, EPE has been carrying out planning studies considering the prospect of growth of these loads in the medium to long term.
The publication also points out that Brazil currently has 187,000 km of transmission lines, a number that is expected to rise to 218,000 km in 2034 – an increase of almost 17%. In the case of substations, the country’s current total power is 482,000 MVA, with a forecast increase to 564,000 MVA in ten years – an increase of 17%.
In addition, the document also addresses the issue of expanding transmission to meet the significant demand projected for hydrogen production plants in the coming years. Due to the high level of renewability of the Brazilian electricity grid and the high availability of renewable sources for expansion, Brazil has been identified as a promising market for the entry of electro-intensive projects, such as data centers and the low-carbon hydrogen industry.
According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Brazil has several hydrogen projects under study, planned to connect at specific points in the network, which total an installed capacity much higher than the current peak demand of the entire Northeast region. Due to this high demand for projects related to this industry, strongly concentrated in the Northeast Region, EPE began a prospective study on transmission expansion in 2024 that will take into account scenarios of growth in loads of this type in the medium to long term. One of the main challenges of this study will be to define the amount of hydrogen load for which the transmission system will be dimensioned.
Brazil Energy Insight 
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