
There’s a new realism in the Floating Wind Industry. The big numbers from the hype days were never going to make it in time and projects are ‘moving to the right’ we hear almost daily. But perhaps those projects had too optimistic timelines initially. In reality, 2030 was just a round number and now that it’s suddenly close by, a ‘full scale’ project seems a bit too ambitious given the time needed for permitting, construction and installation.
Luckily there’s a lot more ongoing than full scale projects. The global floating project pipeline is about 400 projects …, half of which are just ‘possible’, so anything can happen. Roughly, 100 are ‘planned’ and still have a long way to permit. That leaves today an actual project pipeline of some 100 projects with close to 4,000 floating units ….
A recent ORECatapult / DOf study confirms that in a risk-evasive scenario (is there any other?), 30 floating units can be installed in a single North Sea season. Let’s say 50 in calmer environments. If commissioning is planned at the latest 2030, the projects should be already permitted or close-by and nearing FiD. Let’s call this the Near-Term Viable Market.
If we adhere to the 30-floater rule, we have 40 projects at hand out to 2030. Some 300 units, with $20B in open contracts. If we leave out the turbines and floaters, that is still a $7B opportunity.
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