(TN) The World Bank Group released today 16/07, a study on “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil” based on analysis by DNV, an independent global expert in energy and risk management. This report is part of a series of offshore wind roadmap studies commissioned by the World Bank Group (WBG) under the Offshore Wind Development Program, funded and led by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), in partnership with International Finance Corporation (IFC, the private sector arm of the World Bank Group). The study that served as the basis for the World Bank report was carried out by DNV and written in partnership with Vieira Rezende Advogados and Magalhães Reis Figueiró Advogados.”
Brazil’s offshore wind energy potential exceeds 1,200 GW, with 480 GW coming from fixed foundations and 748 GW from floating foundations. This abundant resource, strategically located close to demand centers, positions offshore wind energy as a key player in Brazil’s future energy landscape.
The report, prepared in collaboration with the World Bank, the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Agency (EPE), provides a comprehensive analysis for policymakers and stakeholders active in Brazil. The conclusions emphasize the need for a clear energy strategy, significant investments in infrastructure and immediate actions to take advantage of the growing interest in offshore wind energy in Brazil.
The report provides a vision for a future under three different growth scenarios:
·Base Case: 16 GW by 2050, representing 3% of Brazil’s generation capacity.
·Intermediate: 32 GW by 2050, representing 6% of total generation capacity.
Ambitious: 96 GW by 2050, comprising almost 20% of the generation mix.
The development of offshore wind energy in Brazil offers a promising complement to hydropower, reducing interannual variability and providing protection during dry periods. It also supports Brazil’s green hydrogen goals and could boost economic growth and job creation, potentially generating up to 516,000 full-time jobs and contributing $168 billion of national gross value added in the Ambitious scenario. Additionally, it can speed up local electricity generation, reducing transmission losses by aligning resources with demand centers, including large cities.
However, there are several challenges, including high upfront costs that require concessional financing and strategic allocation of seabed use rights. Despite projections of significant long-term cost reductions, financing and procurement complexities remain. Substantial investments are also needed for transmission upgrades and grid flexibility to effectively integrate offshore wind. Environmental and social considerations further complicate development, necessitating meticulous planning and community consultation. Modernizing regional ports, logistics infrastructure and the offshore wind supply chain to support greater turbine production increases overall costs.
Strategic planning, collaboration and targeted investments can help overcome these obstacles and unlock the full potential of offshore wind in Brazil’s renewable energy transition.
Santiago Blanco, Executive Vice President and Regional Director for Latin America, Energy Systems at DNV, commented: “This report highlights the immense potential of offshore wind energy in Brazil and provides guidelines for its development. The country’s choice to adopt the Offshore wind energy depends on balancing energy demands, climate goals and economic growth. Our research offers insights, not guidelines, outlining challenges and opportunities to inform strategic decisions.”
The success of Brazil’s offshore wind sector depends on establishing a long-term energy strategy, as highlighted in the World Bank Group’s report on “Key Factors for the Successful Development of Offshore Wind in Emerging Markets”. The chosen path will shape the role of offshore wind energy in Brazil’s future, from a marginal role, in the Base Case, to a significant economic transformation, in the Ambitious Scenario.
Tchiarles Coutinho Hilbig, Market Area Manager for South America, highlights: “The report comes at a crucial time, anticipating regulatory approval for offshore wind in the country. It provides valuable information on technological, environmental, economic and political factors that influence industry growth. Using DNV’s advanced design models with real data on resources, site conditions and key projects, it will equip stakeholders to make decisions and realize strategies for sustainable industry expansion.”
Whatever course policymakers and stakeholders decide to chart, they must act quickly to capitalize on current interest, especially in a context of declining investor enthusiasm for emerging markets. Upgrades to transmission networks, port infrastructure and production capabilities, along with environmental and social sensitivity mapping – all prerequisites for the development of offshore wind energy – have long lead times. Providing a clear path to market entry, including seabed exclusivity and purchase agreements in initial offshore wind auctions, is essential.
For detailed recommendations and additional clarifications, the executive summary is available Scenarios for the Development of Offshore Wind in Brazil (dnv.com.br).
Brazil Energy Insight 
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