The AEO2020 Reference case, which serves as a baseline for exploring the effects of different assumptions about the economy, policy, and technology, projects renewables to be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation through 2050, driven by continued declines in the capital costs for solar and wind technologies. Slow growth in U.S. energy consumption, as a result of continued increases in energy efficiency, and technologically enabled growth in domestic oil and natural gas production lead the United States to remain a net energy exporter through 2050.
The AEO2020 Reference case projects domestic energy demand to grow 0.3% per year on average through 2050, slower than the average annual growth of 1.9% in U.S. gross domestic product. This projection is largely driven by continued increases in energy efficiency in the end-use sectors. Gains in appliance efficiency in the residential and commercial sectors, increases in efficiency of new capital equipment in the industrial sector, and increases in fuel economy partially offset the growth in the number of households, industrial activity, and vehicle-miles traveled.
Brazil Energy Insight 
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