A measure of its volatility has fallen the most among the world’s major currencies in the past month after reaching a four-year high in September. Price swings are abating as calls for President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment ebb, lessening concern about political chaos in Brazil.
Yet analysts say this optimism is overdone and that the momentary calm doesn’t change a long-term outlook that includes a potential credit-rating downgrade and a deeper recession. The worst-performing major currency in 2015 will continue to weaken by the end of this year and won’t rebound before 2019, according to median forecasts in Bloomberg surveys.
“The real looks expensive,” Christian Lawrence, a currency strategist at Rabobank, said from New York. The currency closed at 3.8494 per dollar Friday, after rebounding from a record low of 4.2478 on Sept. 24. “It should be north of 4 per dollar. Economic deterioration and a downgrade are seen as base cases for me.”
The real rose 0.7 percent to 3.8247 per dollar at 10:49 a.m. in New York.
Brazil Energy Insight 
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